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Hudian shares (002463): 5G volume and price go up, server relay grows rapidly

Hudian shares (002463): 5G volume and price go up, server relay grows rapidly

The volume and price of PCBs for investment logic 5G are rising at the same time, and domestic alternatives are gaining momentum: the company is a major military communications and automotive PCB manufacturer, of which communications PCB revenue and gross profit ratio have reached 67.

5% and 73.

7%, visible communication PCB is the company’s core business.

The company’s communication PCB includes two types of operator networks and servers / switches. Among them, the operator’s network business is experiencing a large 5G cycle opportunity. We split the allocation of communication equipment, the value of single-device PCBs, and the manufacturers’ three major factors.In the next three years, we will see a high growth rate. Specifically: 1) Allocation of communication equipment: According to calculations, we estimate that the number of 5G global and domestic base stations will reach 10.38 million stations and 5.26 million stations (a 10% increase over 4G, the same later).And will drive the global and domestic demand for transmission equipment to reach 2.56 million and 1.3 million units (+ 30%), increasing the growth trend of 5G; 2) the value of single-device PCB: single-device PCB has a tendency to increase both quantity and priceThe value of PCB in the equipment will reach 3,200 yuan / set (+ 433%), the value of DU + CU is 1,580 yuan / set (+ 15%), and the total value of base stations will be 11,180 yuan / set (+ 253%), increasing flexibilityStrong strength; 3) Vendor share: The company has a deep accumulation of technology in the multi-layer board market segment with the largest operator network share. At the same time, it can analyze the stickiness of downstream customers to the company from historical conditions, so I他The company will continue to determine their own competitive strength. 5G, continued to maintain a high market share.

Server demand is picking up, and structural changes brought about by automobiles: from the rise in global cloud computing giant 19Q3 capital expenditure and server price increases, we can judge that the server / switch PCB growth trend is good, and the total space in the next five years will reach 193.2 billion U.S. dollars.The leading server / converter partnership is solid and is expected to enjoy industry growth dividends; automotive PCBs enjoy structural opportunities brought by the penetration of automotive electronics and the popularity of new energy vehicles. The PCB market space is expected to reach 242.4 billion in the next five years.Tier1 maintains close cooperation worldwide, and this type of business is committed to maintaining steady growth.

Investment advice do we expect the company 2019?
The net profit attributable to mothers will reach 12 in 2021.

400 million, 16.

700 million and 20.

US $ 200 million. Considering that the company has maintained long-term cooperation with leading global customers 南京桑拿网 in 5G, servers / switches, and automobiles, and its performance is deterministically substituted, we will give a target market value of US $ 50.1 billion at 30 times PE next year, corresponding to the target price.29 yuan, the first coverage given a “buy” rating.

Risks Downstream demand is below expectations; 5G PCB prices are below expectations; the company’s market share is below expectations.