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Focus Media (002027): The bottom of Q1 forecast performance is yet to be consolidated

Focus Media (002027): The bottom of Q1 forecast performance is yet to be consolidated

Brief evaluation of performance The company recently released a forecast for the first quarter of 2019, which is attributed to its net profit3.


23 ‰, an average 北京桑拿 of 65% -75% in ten years.

The most reasonable reason for the performance of operating analysis is mainly the additional cost factor of insufficient macro demand.

The performance was lower than our previous expectations.

We estimate that the revenue end of the first quarter will decrease by about 10% every ten years. Due to the macroeconomic impact, demand from advertisers is sluggish.

According to the statistics of China Investment Network, the total scale of funds raised in the VC / PE market in 2018 was 111.6 billion US dollars, which suddenly plummeted by 60.

At 16%, we judge where Internet customers appear in Focus.

On the cost side, the company’s 18-year expansion of building numbers is expected to increase by about 63%, resulting in increased growth in rental costs, labor costs, and equipment depreciation 四川耍耍网 in Q1 this year. We estimate that Q1’s gross profit margin will decline by about 40% this year.

The Internet CPM price in January-February this year will not exceed the significant price, and it will have a substitutive effect on Focus’s price system.

According to our exclusive monitoring, the Internet CPM between January and February this year was about 30% between the first-tier cities and the new first-tier cities, which also verified the sluggish advertising demand.

In addition, due to the rapid expansion of the number of buildings in 18 years, the Focus Group will also reduce the publication rate, and the price overlap will cause the revenue to decrease.

However, we believe that these unfavorable factors affect the scale of SMEs (company segmentation), which is conducive to the accelerated market clearing.

The performance of Q2 in 19 continued to reduce pressure, and the bottom of the company’s fundamentals is expected to initially appear in Q3 of 19.

The 18-year Q2 performance has a special high base effect, mainly due to the very high government subsidies received in the quarter (other income is as high as 3).

500 million US dollars, and 6 months of the World Cup leading advertisers ahead of time to advertise.

This year’s Q2 performance is still relatively pressure to reduce, but the gross profit margin is expected to pick up from Q1.

We believe that the bottom of the fundamentals will not appear until Q3 this year, and we still need to observe the impact of macroeconomics on demand.

Earnings Forecast and Investment Suggestions Due to the slow down of box office growth and less than expected demand from advertisers, we lower our profit forecast for 2019 and 2020 to 47.

3 (down 18%), 54.

800 million (down 18%), corresponding to 21 and 18 times the PE.

Optimistic about the company’s long-term development space and maintain the “overweight” rating.

Risk Warning On January 2, 2019, the company had 52.

55% of shares are lifted; media rent growth may exceed expectations, which will affect profit growth; macroeconomic fluctuations may affect advertiser demand.